Predicting Hospital Surge after a Large-Scale Anthrax Attack: A Model-Based Analysisof CDC’s Cities Readiness Initiative Prophylaxis Recommendations

This study models what happens to hospitals after a large airborne anthrax attack and shows that speed matters more than almost anything else. If antibiotics are started quickly and distributed within 48 hours, most exposed people can avoid illness. But even short delays in starting the response sharply increase hospitalizations and can overwhelm hospitals. Missing the start time matters more than taking longer to finish dispensing once the response begins. The study also shows that response success depends heavily on how effective antibiotics are in real-world use. The key lesson is: faster detection and faster action are essential to prevent catastrophic hospital surge.